What to expect from Trump's tech policies
And what they could mean for Europe. Then AI and society. Politics and conspiracy theories.
Digital Conflicts is a bi-weekly briefing on the intersections of digital culture, AI, cybersecurity, digital rights, data privacy, and tech policy with a European focus.
Brought to you with journalistic integrity by Guerre di Rete, in partnership with the University of Bologna's Centre for Digital Ethics.
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N.17 - 18 November 2024
Author: Carola Frediani and Andrea Daniele Signorelli
In this issue:
Tech policies under Trump: what to expect
The internet is not a multilingual space
The Democrats and conspiracy theories
How U.S. judges use recidivism assessment systems
And more
TECH POLICY
Tech Policy Under Trump: What to Expect
What can we expect from the new Trump administration in terms of digital policy? And how will it interact with European policies and regulations?
We are referring to issues such as AI governance, government relations with major platforms and social media, chip manufacturing and export rules, mergers and acquisitions, and antitrust policy.
Platforms and the European Union
Under Biden, Big Tech faced increased scrutiny from Washington regulators. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC), the federal agency charged with protecting consumers and preventing anti-competitive business practices, blocked several mergers in Silicon Valley. More broadly, the Department of Justice and the FTC have launched a series of anti-competitive lawsuits and investigations targeting Microsoft, OpenAI, and Nvidia – the American leaders in AI software and hardware. Amazon, Apple, and Google have also come under antitrust scrutiny.
Meanwhile, there's a lot going on across the Atlantic. Last March, the European Commission launched an investigation into Google, Apple and Meta for alleged violations of the Digital Markets Act (DMA). Also in March, the EU fined Apple €1.84 billion following a complaint from Swedish company Spotify. According to the Commission, Apple abused its dominant position by preventing music streaming app developers from informing iOS users about cheaper subscription options available outside the app (and from including links to their websites). This behavior, the EU said, violates its antitrust rules.
But that's not all. Just this week, under the DMA, the European Commission ordered Booking.com, another American giant known for vacation and travel bookings, to comply with several directives. For example, hotels, car rentals, and other service providers that use Booking.com will now be free to offer different (and potentially better) prices and conditions on their websites or other channels than on Booking.com.
On the antitrust front, Meta was also fined nearly €800 million by Brussels this week. Facebook's parent company is accused of stifling competition by "tying" its free marketplace services to the social network.
In July, the European Commission issued a preliminary opinion accusing X (formerly Twitter) of violating another European law, the Digital Services Act (DSA), by failing to comply with transparency and accountability rules. The Commission criticized X's blue check marks, calling them misleading.
"Since anyone can subscribe to obtain such a ‘verified’ status, it negatively affects users' ability to make free and informed decisions about the authenticity of the accounts and the content they interact with", the Commission wrote. Potential fines are up to 6% of a company’s global annual turnover. A finding of non-compliance could also trigger enhanced monitoring or even periodic penalty payments to enforce compliance.
According to some observers, if the EU were to fine X, Elon Musk's platform, for violating the DSA rules, relations between Trump and the European Commission could quickly sour, fueling the MAGA narrative that the EU is merely trying to undermine U.S. Big Tech.
European lawmakers have already urged the EU executive not to back down. German Green MEP Alexandra Geese said, "the European Commission now needs to stand tall and defend EU platform rules", while Dutch Green MEP Kim van Sparrentak stressed, "especially now, it’s more important than ever that Europe rises to defend our rights and democracy, also online", according to Politico.
With the new Trump administration, this implicit transatlantic consensus on regulating large US tech companies – which some had observed under Biden – could collapse.
Domestically, the potential appointment of Matt Gaetz as Attorney General (if confirmed) adds ambiguity to U.S. antitrust policy and relations with Big Tech. Gaetz has been a critic of Big Tech and has shown appreciation for Lina Khan, the current president of the FTC, although she is expected to step down (Musk promised to get her fired).
When it comes to the EU, however, the attitude is less nuanced. Trump has frequently claimed that the EU discriminates against U.S. companies and has vowed to prevent Europe from "taking advantage of our companies". He even claimed that Apple CEO Tim Cook called him to complain about the €13 billion in unpaid taxes the company owes Ireland.
The speed and enthusiasm with which top Big Tech executives, even those who had previously distanced themselves from Trump, rushed to congratulate him could indicate fear of retribution. But it could also indicate hopes of finding an ally on several fronts, including opposition to European regulation.
Cybersecurity
Given the mantra of "less regulation", some observers expect less effort than under Biden to regulate various critical infrastructure sectors (transportation, energy, water systems, health care-all of which have been targeted by attacks in recent years) to improve their cybersecurity.
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) is likely to be refocused on strictly cyber-related issues, with its counter-disinformation initiatives scaled back.
In addition, the Biden administration had taken action against certain foreign producers of surveillance tools, such as spyware developed by the Israeli company NSO Group, by placing them on Entity List. This is effectively a blacklist that restricts NSO Group's access to American products and prohibits U.S. companies or agencies from purchasing or using NSO Group products, such as the Pegasus spyware.
According to some observers, the new administration may remove these companies from the list of entities considered a threat to national security. Companies like NSO Group have already lobbied Republicans to that effect.
Artificial Intelligence
Biden's executive order on artificial intelligence will almost certainly be repealed, according to Tech Policy and other analysts. The Republican Party had already pledged in its official platform to "repeal Joe Biden’s dangerous Executive Order that hinders AI Innovation" and instead promote the development of this technology "rooted in Free Speech and Human Flourishing" rather than "radical leftwing ideas". As a result, policies that protect workers, civil rights, and consumer protections are particularly at risk.
However, it's unclear how much of the bureaucratic apparatus built around the executive order will be dismantled. For example, what will happen to the requirement that major AI developers report their models to the government? Some believe this will be eliminated, but it may remain an open question.
One aspect of Biden's AI policy that may continue, and even intensify, under Trump is tighter export controls.
Under Biden, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security has tightened export controls on AI technology. A key goal of these regulations is to block China's access to the most advanced AI chips. "A second Trump administration is likely to further tighten export restrictions on AI", writes the Brookings Institution.
Finally, right-leaning think tanks predict a loosening of various energy and environmental restrictions to pave the way for the AI industry, which is known to be highly energy-intensive.
Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies
Make Bitcoin Great Again could sum up this section. Trump's victory is currently seen as a victory for the crypto world. The Republican Party had promised to end what it called the Democrats' "illegal and un-American crackdown on cryptocurrencies".
As such, few expect Gary Gensler, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), to politically survive in its current position. Gensler has been aggressively pursuing various players in the crypto sector.
(A consulting firm has produced a detailed report on how Gensler's SEC has prioritized oversight and regulation of the crypto industry).
RIGHTS, PLATFORMS, INTERNET
The Internet Is Not a Multilingual Space
Seventy-five percent of Internet users come from countries where English is not the official language, most of them in the so-called Global South. Yet many applications and websites are not available in the thousands of languages spoken daily around the world. Even more critical is the lack of moderators in these languages. The most translated interfaces are those of Wikipedia, Google Search, Google Maps, and YouTube.
From content moderation to hate speech, platforms' disregard for non-English languages also impacts human rights. The advent of artificial intelligence could bring change. Irene Doda writes about this on our website, Guerre di Rete (Italian only).
PLATFORMS, INFORMATION, DISINFORMATION
Democrats and Conspiracy Theories
Amid declining trust in traditional media and the sting of Trump's victory, some liberal and pro-Democratic voters in the U.S. appear to be developing – or leaning toward – conspiracy theories. This phenomenon parallels a trend seen in parts of the right, particularly the alt-right. A term has already been coined for it: BlueAnon (a play on the Democratic color blue and QAnon, the infamous, anti-liberal conspiracy theory). The concept gained traction after the attack on Trump, with various conspiracy theories about the authenticity of the event.
Recent liberal conspiracy theories, as reported by journalist Taylor Lorenz, range from skepticism about vote counts in key states to allegations of a criminal cover-up by Biden to ensure Democratic losses to claims of Russian interference in voting systems. One of the latest theories involves Elon Musk: the idea is that the billionaire somehow compromised the voting mechanism through Starlink, his satellite connectivity company, which is supposedly part of the supply chain for voting machines. This claim is false, not least because voting machines are not connected to the Internet.
Many of these election-related theories are circulating in Threads, showing that Meta's efforts to deprioritize and minimize journalistic content on the app may have created a vacuum where misinformation thrives unchecked, leaving users unable to find reliable news, the journalist observes.
This trend also reflects the progressive unraveling of the entire political and information ecosystem, with ominous implications.
"Of course," writes Leonardo Bianchi, a journalist who covers these issues for Facta News, "there is a big difference between QAnon and BlueAnon. The former is now an integral part of Republican propaganda, openly amplified thousands of times by Trump. The latter, however, has not been adopted by any Democratic lawmakers or officials and remains confined to pockets of the progressive electorate. But it has become impossible to ignore".
ALGORITHMS AND SOCIETY
Assessing the Risks of Risk Assessments
In the United States, pretrial risk assessment systems (long controversial) estimate the likelihood that a defendant will appear in court or commit further crimes. These tools use the defendant's criminal history, family background and a database of past cases to generate a risk score - either a "low", "medium", or "high" risk label or a number on a scale. Judges receive these scores during preliminary hearings that determine whether (and under what conditions) a defendant will be released.
A study published in the journal Social Problems found that judges neither fully adopt nor outright reject the recommendations of these algorithms. Instead, they use them selectively, driven by deeply human factors in deciding whether to heed or ignore the results. A key motivator is not necessarily the reliability of the system, but whether it helps justify a decision the judge already wants to make, the author argues. It's worth noting that the study is limited and its findings are nuanced, but the opportunistic use of these tools is an interesting point that merits further research. The topic has been debated in the U.S. since at least 2016, when a famous ProPublica investigation found that pre-trial risk assessment systems were unreliable and discriminatory (via The Verge).
IN BRIEF
AI ACT
The first draft of the General-Purpose AI Code of Practice, authored by independent experts, has been published. If you work in AI governance, this is a must-read
Silicon Valley Got What It Wanted
It's not just Elon Musk. It's a new day for deregulation, cryptocurrencies, and tech companies cozying up to Trump. A critical left-wing commentary by Brian Merchant (author of the excellent book Blood in the Machine).